photo source: blogs.channel4

conducted by Marco Trifuoggi

VI: Let’s start with the most difficult one: is an agreement still possible, and on what terms? Both Angela Merkel and Jeroen Dijsselbloem have given a lukewarm greeting to Tsipras returning to Brussels.

KL: Given the developments of the last weeks, the closing of the banks, and the outcome of the referendum, it seems that an agreement is increasingly difficult

VI: In this regard, is the appoint of Euclid Tsakalotos as the new finance minister going to be enough to prove the good will of the Greek government?

KL: This could be only a trick. As we noticed over he last weeks, Tsipras can be entirely unpredictable.

VI: Even if an agreement is on the table, Greek banks are still at risk of insolvency. Should and could the ECB intervene to lift the ELA cap or should it keep a neutral stance, thus trying to avoid any further politicisation?

KL: The situation at the Greek banks has worsened as a result of the overall developments in the economy. It will become increasingly difficult for the ECB to increase the ELA, if no agreement is reached on an overall plan.

VI: Since Tsipras came to power, it has been suggested that he could have tried to exploit the existing divisions within the Eurogroup to gain some allies, namely Italy and France. Though it did not happen, François Hollande has been recently seen as more supportive towards the Greek government: could Tsipras still capitalise on that to get a better deal – or any deal at all?

KL: This is what apparently has been happening, but at the risk of a further falling apart of the Euro-zone and the EU. The split between Eurozone monetary policy and the coordination of economic policies has only grown as a result.

VI: The last question, just for the sake of speculating: what could be the effects of a Grexit scenario for the United Kingdom? Could it be beneficial for David Cameron to campaign for lower integration in the European Union?

KL: On the short term, it could strengthen Cameron, but it could also resolve that only further integration can save the eurozone and the EU.
*Karel Lannoo is the Chief Executive Officer at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), a leading ​think tank based in Brussels.
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