How Should the EU Rethink its Relations with Russia After the War in Ukraine Ends?

We are now entering “The Age of Encounter” — as argued by Hans Kribbe in The Strongmen.[1] In other words, it is an age of encounters with other “great powers” and seemingly irrational and idiosyncratic behaviours, which demands the European Union (EU) to adopt pluralistic thinking. Just as the devastating consequences of World War II paved the way for a new conception of Europe, the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine allows for the possibility of strengthening the European security order and reshaping the pattern of confrontation between Russia and “the West”.[2] In particular, the ongoing crisis underlined the weakness and inefficiency of the EU’s previous ‘low politics approach’ in its relations with Russia and post-Soviet countries.[3]

“This war is unwinnable,” UN secretary-general António Guterres warned in March 2022, “Sooner or later it will have to move from the battlefields to the peace table.”[4] In order to mitigate risk and avoid potential further escalations, the EU, NATO, Russia, and other stakeholders will need to keep channels of communication open at all times, to favour a diplomatic approach to any disputes that are arising. [5] An era of sustained confrontation with Russia will require the EU and NATO to rethink their long-term strategy and to prepare for what could be a strategic confrontation lasting decades.[6]